The NFL Draft might be the most boring television event in history. And that is counting all the Bachelors, Real Worlds, Survivors etc.

An NFL representative walks onto a stage and takes 5 seconds to announce the pick, then we wait while NFL personalities speculate for 15 minutes about who the next pick will be. Rinse. Repeat. For 3 days.

Boring.

I need the Versus Network (OLN), at least they have RV World, and live fishing shows.

Over at the Hardball Times there was an interesting look at some baseball numbers. They estimated the number of games that it takes for a stat to become significant. Or, in their words....

"...'When is it real?' That is, how many games does it take to know that a player's surprising stats are for real instead of a statistical fluke? Here's his answer:

Stat Games to significance
Runs 100
HR 50
RBI 50
SB 30
BA N/A

Now, David used a simple measure to calculate his significance threshold (an R-squared of 50%), but at least there was a method behind his madness. And the interesting thing is how few games it takes for a stolen base total to become a leading indicator, yet how long it takes big changes in batting average to become meaningful. In a word: never."

I found it interesting that big changes in BA are almost impossible. A player may have a standout year, but overall he will fall back to his career average. Remember John Olerud, and his run at .400 in 1994? That year he batted .363, he is a career .295 hitter. Other than '94 and '98, his BA was somewhere in that .295 range.

There has been some talk about Jeter's slow start. Of course its Celizic saying it so....anyway, Jeter is a career .317 hitter, so I expect that once the season is over, his batting average will be somewhere in that range. After all batting average is just that, the average number of times a player will hit safely. There is a lot of luck involved in having a good BA, if you can put the ball into play a lot, luck will go your way sooner or later. Jeter has only struck out 5 times in 63 at bats this season, and he IS hitting .323 with a .391 OBP. So...I guess he is not off to such a slow start after all. Maybe compared to ARod he is, but then so is the entire league.

It's hard to really put into words these kinds of tragedies. Even watching from afar I am horrified. Life will never be the same for the students involved in this shooting spree.

What is most disturbing, is that these random rampages are becoming all too frequent. From Amish grade schools, shopping malls, and college campuses, people are ending thier lives in dramatic fashion, taking innocent bystanders with them.

The huge question is...why?

I am not going to pretend to know why, but I do know that public shootings are a serious issue. What can be done to prevent future shootings? I think the answer is, sadly, not much. Our country is based on individual freedom. Our campuses are public, our sporting events well attended, and our shopping malls busy.

A frightening story coming from the VT shootings is the apparent methodology that this killer used as he prepared for Monday. He purchased the guns a month ago, then spent time "testing the fences" with bomb threats, (If indeed he was responsible for those...) then he killed two people early in the morning, and somehow eluded capture while traveling across campus and carrying out a deadly, cold-blooded rampage. He even locked the doors so people could not escape.

As more details come forth about the victims, it is sad to see so many bright young people have their lives ended in such brutality.

A lot of questions will be asked in the coming days and weeks. But will there be any answers?

Yesterday marked the 60th anniversary of Jackie Robinson breaking through to the Major Leagues. It was a monumental achievement, and it changed the landscape of professional sports in America forever. In his 10 season's Jackie batted .311, had 1518 hits, 197 stolen bases ( a record 19 times he stole home), scored 947 runs and had an On Base Percentage of .409.

A lot has been said about the lack of African American players in the Majors today. But he opened the door for all minorities. Today, minority players make up 40% of Major League Baseball rosters. Latino players like Sammy Sosa, David Ortiz, Pedro Martinez and many many more are heirs to Jackie's legacy as much as C.C. Sabathia, Jimmy Rollins and Juan Pierre.


Here's to remembering a true American hero, Jackie Robinson.

Richard Dutcher once made a movie. It was a niche film, with a hungry audience. God's Army caught the attention of LDS film goers and with it, helped give rise to this so called "LDS Cinema".

He followed that film up with a few other mediocre ones. They were crafted well, but were box office disasters. Absolute financial failures. God's Army 2: States of Grace cost a reported $800,000. It has a lifetime gross of $59,000.

In the wake of that film failing, he publicly criticized movie goers, blaming audiences for the dismal returns. His comments grew more hostile toward other filmmakers, accusing them of "peeing in the pool of LDS cinema." And of course this gem:

Mormon filmmakers have turned Mormon Cinema into a joke," Dutcher said. "I used to be very proud to call myself a Mormon filmmaker. But, because of what has happened over the last five years, I get as much or less respect calling myself a Mormon filmmaker as if I called myself a pornographer.

And now this.

Aside from one last chance to criticize LDS filmmakers, Dutcher launches into his justification for leaving the faith:

The private answers to the questions I have asked in my prayers, and in my films, have led me on an unexpected journey, a spiritual path which may ultimately prove incompatible with Mormon orthodoxy.

A path that leads to this, apparently:

I hope that someday I will hear a few of your names mentioned in the company of the handful of filmmakers who have dared to explore human spirituality in film: Bergman, Bresson, Tarkovsky, Dreyer, Ozu, etc. One of my greatest hopes, of course (in true competitive spirit), is that one day my name will be at the very top of that list.

Ah, so here we go. His Mormon orthodoxy is preventing him from becoming the greatest filmmaker of all time. In addition, he is unable to truly explore "human spirituality" while the watchful eyes of the Church lean in over his shoulder. Underlying this of course, is the inability of Mormon movie goers to understand and appreciate his genius. What other explanation could there be for his ultimate failure?

Here's one. Dutcher's movies are not very good. His story lines were manipulative and unrealistic. They contained an underlying arrogance, as if he alone understood the plight of faith and reason. Casting himself as the star in his own films further underlines his egocentric style.

He claims a higher path, an incompatible path, has beckoned him hence. And now he leaves "Mormon cinema in your capable -- and now seasoned -- hands". When did Mormon cinema ever become his to hand off? What we need, he claims, are "excellent filmmakers who understand the language of cinema, the eloquence of images". I agree. Of course we need excellence in our films. That goes without saying, and especially goes without needing to be said on the soapbox of unquenchable arrogance.

What we also need are filmmakers who understand the language of the spirit, and the eloquence of faith. We need filmmakers who will not be tossed to and fro at the possibility of worshiping at the altar of a small golden statue, and a night on the red carpet.

No doubt, Richard Dutcher wants his upcoming film Falling to be heralded as a great autobiographical journey. An expression of art and craft, welded together with the ambiguous tag of "human spirituality". His great foray into the world of cinema, free of any affiliation with the genre he likes to claim he founded, free of any unrelenting orthodoxy and unwashed masses. A film for the traveler seeking higher ground and deeper waters. His first step toward the beckon of recognition he so desperately craves. A vanguard announcing his arrival in the promised land of glitz and glamor.

I hope your calendar is open, Richard Dutcher, you have Hollywood parties to attend.

Dave Wilton explains:

"At sixes and sevens means in confusion or disorder...It originally referred to betting one’s entire fortune on one throw of the dice....The phrase dates to c.1374 when it appears in Chaucer’s Troilus and Criseyde: 'Lat nat this wrechched wo thyn herte gnawe, But manly set the world on sexe and seuene.' (Let not this wretched woe gnaw at your heart, But manly set the world on six and seven.)"

And so, this blog will be a place to comment on the world around me. Sports, Movies, Politics and of course the oddities of Mormon Utah. As an active, practicing Mormon, and also as a filmmaker, I find myself in a unique spot in the world. The ideals of Mormonism and Film are strange bedfellows, and as we see time and time again are often...incompatible.

However, often doesn't mean always, and with feet firmly planted on the ground, the two can coexist in dramatic fashion. Indeed they must exist, for as Mormons, we have stories to tell.

So off I go, setting the world at six and seven.